France and Spain meet in a World Cup semifinal, and one of the most interesting questions before kickoff is which players have been scoring most often in recent matches.
This article does not try to guarantee who will score. Instead, it uses a simple data point: each expected starter’s scoring rate over the last 12 months.
Method
The predicted starting lineups are based on Sports Illustrated’s France vs Spain World Cup semifinal preview, published on July 13, 2026. The listed formations are 4-2-3-1 for both teams.
For each player, Havmon checked FotMob recent match data and filtered played matches from July 14, 2025 through July 14, 2026. The scoring rate is calculated as:
Scoring rate = goals / appearances × 100
For example, if a player scored 10 goals in 100 appearances, the scoring rate would be 10.0%.
France predicted lineup and scoring rate
France’s projected XI is Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Dembélé, Olise, Doué; Mbappé.
| Position | Player | Appearances | Goals | Scoring rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Maignan | 58 | 0 | 0.0% |
| RB | Koundé | 63 | 3 | 4.8% |
| CB | Upamecano | 60 | 2 | 3.3% |
| CB | Saliba | 64 | 1 | 1.6% |
| LB | Digne | 53 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DM | Tchouaméni | 58 | 2 | 3.4% |
| DM | Rabiot | 47 | 7 | 14.9% |
| RW | Dembélé | 49 | 25 | 51.0% |
| AM | Olise | 68 | 27 | 39.7% |
| LW | Doué | 51 | 16 | 31.4% |
| ST | Mbappé | 59 | 58 | 98.3% |
Spain predicted lineup and scoring rate
Spain’s projected XI is Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabián Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.
| Position | Player | Appearances | Goals | Scoring rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Unai Simón | 62 | 0 | 0.0% |
| RB | Porro | 64 | 3 | 4.7% |
| CB | Cubarsí | 58 | 1 | 1.7% |
| CB | Laporte | 42 | 0 | 0.0% |
| LB | Cucurella | 65 | 2 | 3.1% |
| DM | Rodri | 44 | 2 | 4.5% |
| DM | Fabián Ruiz | 43 | 3 | 7.0% |
| RW | Yamal | 59 | 29 | 49.2% |
| AM | Olmo | 64 | 9 | 14.1% |
| LW | Baena | 60 | 3 | 5.0% |
| ST | Oyarzabal | 55 | 31 | 56.4% |
What the numbers suggest
The highest recent scoring rate belongs to Kylian Mbappé, who recorded 58 goals in 59 appearances in the sampled data. Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué also show strong attacking output for France.
For Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal stand out as the strongest recent scoring profiles among the projected starters. Dani Olmo also carries a meaningful attacking threat from an advanced midfield role.
Defenders and goalkeepers naturally have lower scoring rates. That does not mean they are less important to the match; it simply reflects their role and average attacking involvement.
Important context
A recent scoring rate is not the same as a match prediction. A player can have a high scoring rate and still fail to score in a single match. Tactical roles, substitutions, injuries, penalties, set pieces and game state can all change the outcome.
These numbers are best used as a simple way to compare recent scoring frequency, not as a guarantee.
Conclusion
France vs Spain offers several high-profile attacking options on both sides. Based on the last 12 months of available recent-match data, Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, Doué, Oyarzabal and Yamal are the projected starters with the clearest scoring profiles.
This article is for general sports analysis and informational purposes only. It is not betting advice, gambling advice, or a prediction guarantee.